Mr. Media Training

New Hampshire voters go to the polls on Tuesday to cast their votes for Republican nominee.

The race in New Hampshire appears to be settled – hometown favorite Mitt Romney is way ahead in almost every poll. So the question coming into tonight’s debate was this: Could anybody else position themselves to become Mr. Romney’s main competition moving forward?

Here are tonight’s grades  in order of best to worst:

THE TOP TIER

MITT ROMNEY (1st Place, Grade: A)

The status quo helps only one candidate in this race: Mitt Romney. And since nothing happened to threaten the status quo, Gov. Romney stands alone in the top tier tonight.

Mr. Romney has clearly pivoted to becoming a general election candidate, brushing his fellow competitors aside with the kind of ease Mike Tyson once used to dispatch Michael Spinks. He competently deflected questions about whether he was responsible for downsizing thousands of employees as part of Bain Capital, leaving his glass jaw completely intact.

Mr. Romney bumbled an answer regarding the rights of states to ban contraception. Although that error will likely get some ink in tomorrow’s papers, it’s not a major gaffe that does anything to challenge Mr. Romney’s dominance in the race.

MIDDLE OF THE PACK

RICK SANTORUM (2nd Place, Grade: B)

This race has three candidates vying to become the conservative alternative to Mitt Romney: Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, and Rick Perry. Of the three, Santorum had the best night.

He focused on the middle class, aligning his message with their struggles. Of course, he would disagree with my analysis – he pointed out that there is no such thing as a middle “class” in America, just middle-income people. It’s a curious distinction that may lead to more than a few unfavorable opponent ads.

Mr. Santorum displayed his mastery of state privacy laws when asked about the contraceptive case Romney fumbled. He also got off a good line when Ron Paul’s microphone started feeding back the very moment he began attacking Santorum (“They caught you not telling the truth, Ron.”).

Still, Sen. Santorum continues to look too defensive when attacked. If he’s going to become a credible alternative to Mitt Romney, he needs to focus on appearing more presidential and less peevish. One way to do that is to stop getting so excited when defending his record – when he does, his voice rises and his pace quickens. He could appear more in control if he did the opposite – slowed down and spoke in a stronger and more controlled – but not louder – voice.

NEWT GINGRICH (3rd Place, Grade: C+)

Talk about anticlimactic.

After his fourth place finish in Iowa on Tuesday night, Speaker Gingrich pledged to attack Mr. Romney’s record. Before the debate, his spokesman, R.C. Hammond, said: “It’s fight night. We’re excited.”

If this was a fight, it was more the kind that ends up with the two combatants dating. One of the most important jobs for debate nights happens before the debate, when the candidates attempt to manage expectations. On that count, Mr. Gingrich vastly oversold and under-delivered.  It’s almost as if he decided to hold his fire in the hopes that he can score a cabinet position in a Romney administration.

Mr. Gingrich would have ranked lower, but for a few good attack lines. He pretended to defend President Obama by saying, “I’m sure in his desperate efforts to create a radical, European socialist model [he] is sincere.” And values voters will appreciate, “There’s a lot more anti-Christian bigotry today than there is concern of the other side, and none of it gets covered by the news media.”

All in all, a muted performance and blown opportunity.

TRAILING THE FIELD

JON HUNTSMAN (4th Place, Grade: C)

Jon Huntsman will be remembered for only one moment in this debate: The one when he suddenly decided to attack Mitt Romney – in Mandarin.

That’s right, in what must be a first in presidential elections, Mr. Huntsman used the Chinese dialect to attack Mr. Romney’s lack of understanding of China.

Beyond that, Gov. Huntsman speaks too elliptically, making his points in tentative and diplomatic language missing any fine edge. In his attempt to sound like the “reasonable” guy, he instead comes across as soporific – and a bit weird (see speaking in Mandarin tonight, earlier Kurt Cobain joke).

It’s too bad. Mr. Huntsman has the qualities that could have allowed him to position himself as the other “adult” in the room, alongside Mitt Romney, but he was never able to effectively deploy them.

Mr. Huntsman has one last shot – tomorrow morning’s debate. I suspect it won’t matter, and that his candidacy will end before he ever makes it to South Carolina.

RON PAUL (5th Place, Grade: C-)

Rep. Paul spent most of his evening going after Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich, a clear strategic choice to try to knock them both out and become Mr. Romney’s sole competitor.

I’ve never seen Ron Paul more angered, to the point of trembling, when he discussed “chicken hawks,” or legislators who send kids off to war but who didn’t serve when called. Mr. Paul had a shocking moment when he said of Newt Gingrich:

“I think people who don’t serve when they could…and they get deferments…they have not right to send our kids off to war…I’m trying to stop the wars, but at least I went when they called me up.”

Unfortunately for Dr. Paul, Americans have not elected an “angry” candidate since the beginning of the 24/7 media age. His flash of anger will likely be greeted with enthusiasm by his considerable base of supporters, but it’s hard to see how it helps him expand his base before Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary.

Dr. Paul is better when he’s in the role of a passionate ideologue with a cause. But he’s a lousy attack dog, appearing as unlikeable, cranky, and yes – even mean – as Bob Dole was back in 1996.

RICK PERRY (6th Place, Grade: D)

Remember last week when Gov. Perry said he was going back to Texas to re-assess his candidacy? He should have stayed home. It’s not that he had a bad night tonight. It’s that he was thoroughly irrelevant.

Well, almost irrelevant. He did have one memorable moment, when he said America should send troops back into Iraq. That’ll make a few headlines, but not ones that will help him break out of single digits. 

COMMENTS: Do you agree or disagree with my analysis? Please leave your opinion in the comment section below, but remember the blog’s comment policy – no ad hominem attacks or pejorative name-calling will be posted.

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Just two months ago, a Newt Gingrich comeback seemed as unlikely as a comeback for other 1990s superstars, such as Color Me Badd, flannel shirts, and that Susan Powter “Stop The Insanity!” lady.

But in tonight’s debate, the former House Speaker entered as the clear favorite in national polling. Did anything happen tonight to threaten his lead?

Here are tonight’s grades, in order of best to worst:

THE TOP TIER

MITT ROMNEY (1st Place, Grade: A-)

Mitt Romney was on his game tonight.

His game plan was clear: He’d be the rational, level-headed one, serving as a nice contrast with Newt Gingrich, who Romney’s campaign accuses of being “zany” and irresponsible. He succeeded.

Gov. Romney  focused his attacks on President Obama – not his opponents – which is good, since he looks unappealing and peevish when he attacks on the debate stage. He looked less defensive in his responses to Chris Wallace’s tough questions than Gingrich did when facing similar aggressive questioning.

Mr. Romney had a terrific line regarding the downed drone in Iran. Reacting to President Obama requesting that Iran return the drone, Gov. Romney caustically said that the President’s response amounting to having a foreign policy of “pretty please?”

Iowa is very much up in the air, but Mr. Romney did a lot to help his chances tonight.

RICK SANTORUM (2nd Place, tied, Grade: B+)

Sen. Santorum had a good night, successfully conveying a single message: Been there, done that.

By using that response, Mr. Santorum successfully whacked all of his opponents. He was able to use that refrain to whack those competitors who have changed their positions over time, and to whack those who he accused of not being sufficiently conservative.

If any of the candidates in the bottom tier move up over the next three weeks, I’m guessing it’ll be Santorum.

RON PAUL (2nd Place, tied, Grade: B+)

Rep. Paul also had a good night tonight. He was more animated than he has been in past debates, even displaying a little humor over his favorite Supreme Court justice (“All of them are good and all of them are bad,” he said.) He made Rep. Bachman look like a naif after a particularly heated exchange over Iran, angrily wagging his pen as he pressed his case.

It’s easy to see why so many Americans have been attracted to his campaign; no candidate on either side of the aisle has been as ideologically consistent.

Still, it’s important to point out that Americans always elect the more optimistic candidate (they’ve done so since the beginning of the 24/7 media age in 1980), and Dr. Paul conveys little optimism. He’d do himself a favor by wrapping his principled arguments in a “can do” spirit that offers fewer strident lectures along the way.

MIDDLE OF THE PACK

MICHELE BACHMANN (4th Place, Grade: C+)

Rep. Bachmann launched a successful attack against Speaker Gingrich on Freddie Mac tonight, but was less successful when going after Ron Paul on Iraq. The bigger problem for her is that she did nothing to change the dynamic of her campaign. After tonight, it’s tough to see how she finishes in the top three in Iowa, which would effectively end her campaign.

NEWT GINGRICH (5th Place, Grade: C)

Speaker Gingrich had a lousy first half tonight, which may hurt his already slipping poll numbers in Iowa.

When his opponents predictably attacked him, he looked defensive and his face tightened. Given that he knew the attacks were coming, I was surprised he didn’t have a witty rejoinder at the ready – where was the debate wit that launched him into the top tier in the first place?

He used the language of denial – a political “no-no” – by saying, “I have never once changed my positions due to any type of payment.” Count on that sound bite being played repeatedly on tomorrow’s cable news programs. He also allowed himself to be thrust into the role of being a defender of big government. Plus, did we really need a history lesson dating back to 1802?

Mr. Gingrich had his moments, such as when he said, “I get accused of using language that’s too strong, so I’ve been up here editing. I don’t want to be accused of being ‘zany.’” That ‘zany’ line was a sly allusion to an ad being run against him by the Romney campaign.

TRAILING THE FIELD

RICK PERRY (6th Place, Grade: C-)

Listening to Rick Perry speak is kind of like looking at a randomly assorted collection of refrigerator word magnets. His awkward cadence, bordering on manic at times, is like a high-wire act – you know he could slip at any moment (and he often does).

His attempt to relate himself to NFL quarterback Tim Tebow, a darling of conservatives, was a good idea on paper. But in real-life, it’s a talking point that has a high degree of difficulty, and Gov. Perry looked foolish trying to pull it off.

It wasn’t all bad for Perry. His pitch for a “part-time Congress” is the most likely idea to stick since “9-9-9,” and he delivered a strong answer on immigration. All in all, though, not enough to significantly alter his electoral odds. 

JON HUNTSMAN (7th Place, Grade: D+)

We learned something new in this debate: Jon Huntsman’s favorite curse word is “screwed.”

He used the word no fewer than three times: “We are getting screwed as Americans;” “President Obama “screwed up” the economy;” and our “visa system is so screwed up in this nation.” 

For good measure, he threw in a rhetorical question that asked “how stupid are we,” referenced Donald Trump, and alluded to George Kennan, the barely remembered diplomat best remembered as the “father of containment.”

Gov. Huntsman is screwed. His effort to use stronger language that will resonate deeply with the American people isn’t natural for him, making him look desperate. And what was with him looking at his notes as he was speaking throughout the debate? If you can’t deliver an answer without a crutch at this point, you’re, well, screwed.

COMMENTS? Do you agree or disagree with my analysis? Please leave your opinion in the comment section below, but remember the blog’s comment policy – no ad hominem attacks or pejorative name-calling will be posted.

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Republican Debate Scorecard: Who Gets The Highest (and Lowest) Grades For Debating Skills So Far?

World’s Most Visited Media Training Website Ranks Candidates’ Debate Performance In First Ten Debates

November 29, 2011 (Washington, DC) – Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are the best debaters in the Republican field, while Jon Huntsman and Rick Perry rank among the worst, according to a detailed analysis of ten Republican debates held between May and November 2011.

To help determine the winners and losers, the candidates were ranked using seven specific communications criteria – including clarity of message, optimism of message, and charisma – that have accurately predicted the winners of every general election since the beginning of the 24/7 media age in 1980.

The 10,000-word series appears on the Mr. Media Training Blog (www.MrMediaTraining.com), the world’s most visited media training website. The blog’s author, Brad Phillips, was formerly a journalist with ABC News and CNN. Here are the rankings:

First Place: Mitt Romney (B+) Gov. Romney has been the most consistent debater thus far. He has easily deflected his opponents’ attacks, proving himself to be a “Teflon” candidate to whom nothing sticks. He has demonstrated a mastery of public policy and shown toughness as a debater. The Republican base may not love him, but they have to concede he would fare well in next fall’s debates against President Obama.

Second Place: Newt Gingrich (B) Speaker Gingrich propelled himself to the top of the Republican pack primarily through his strong debate performances, during which he often castigated the mainstream media. Like Romney, he has demonstrated his policy mastery. Unlike Romney, his propensity to go off-script leaves open the question of whether he’s a more disciplined politician than he was in the 1990s.

Third Place: Michele Bachmann (B-) Rep. Bachmann, who briefly flirted with the lead, has shown an impressive ability to articulate an unambiguous message throughout the debates (ObamaCare bad, repeal good). She has also demonstrated a skillful ability to attack her opponents directly without ever appearing nasty. Still, she falls off-script too often, such as when she said after one debate that the HPV vaccine caused “mental retardation.”

Fourth Place: Herman Cain (C+) Mr. Cain dominated the storyline in several early debates with his “9-9-9” plan; no other candidate offered such a memorable proposal. Mr. Cain’s ability to offer a well-timed one-liner helped make him a crowd favorite. But recent debates about foreign policy have revealed his superficial knowledge of international affairs and will likely hasten his decline in the polls.

Fifth Place, Tied: Ron Paul (C) Rep. Paul is the most ideologically consistent of anyone in the field, and is unafraid to defend his views – many of which are unpopular with the GOP base. Still, he too often comes across as lecturing and strident, and hasn’t made the personal connection that will help him expand his reach beyond his relatively small but deeply loyal base.

Fifth Place, Tied: Rick Santorum (C) Sen. Santorum is passionate, but conveys that passion with an ever-present sour expression. Mr. Santorum has launched a few effective attacks on his opponents. But whereas Ronald Reagan used to eviscerate his opponents with a warm smile, Mr. Santorum looks thoroughly disgusted with his opponents. There’s a reason Mr. Santorum hasn’t moved in the polls, and it’s that Americans express a clear preference for sunnier candidates.

Fifth Place, Tied: Rick Perry (C) During the debate held on November 9, Gov. Perry committed one of the worst debate gaffes in memory when he struggled for 43 seconds to identify the third of three government agencies he pledged to eliminate. He never remembered it, ending his answer with a lame, “Oops.” Mr. Perry has careened between too hot and too cold, unable to settle on the right tone. His halting speaking style, filled with long pauses during which he struggles to find the next phrase, makes him hard to watch. But for a strong first debate, Perry would have ranked lower.

Eighth Place, Jon Huntsman (C-) Gov. Huntsman’s debate performances were mostly memorable for his frequent (and failed) attempts at humor. Whether making a joke invoking Kurt Cobain or the “gas” coming from Washington, Mr. Huntsman too often resembled the awkward uncle who elicits sympathy laughs at family events. Still, Mr. Huntsman may be someone to look out for. His last debate performance was by far his strongest, and that makes him the most improved debater in the field.

“This season’s many debates have given Republican voters a clear sense of which candidates would square off most effectively against President Obama,” said Brad Phillips, author of the Mr. Media Training Blog. “That matters, as the more charismatic general election candidate with the clearer message has won the presidency in every election since the beginning of the 24/7 media age in 1980.”

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Brad Phillips is the author of the Mr. Media Training Blog (www.MrMediaTraining.com), the world’s most visited media training website. He is the president of Phillips Media Relations, a media and presentation training firm with offices in NYC and Washington, DC. Mr. Phillips previously worked as a journalist with ABC’s Nightline with Ted Koppel and CNN’s Reliable Sources and The Capital Gang.

MEDIA INTERVIEW REQUESTS:

Brad Phillips, Contact@MrMediaTraining.com

FULL DEBATE REVIEWS:

Below, you will find links to the scorecards for each debate:

November 22, 2011

November 9, 2011

October 18, 2011

October 11, 2011

September 22, 2011

September 12, 2011

September 7, 2011 

August 11, 2011 

June 13, 2011

May 5, 2011

The leader board for the Republican nomination has changed more often than Mitt Romney’s policy positions.

Over the past six months, Mitt Romney, Donald Trump, Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, and now Newt Gingrich have all led the Republican field.

But the main story tonight wasn’t Newt Gingrich’s sudden rise to the top of the polls. Rather, it was the significant amount of airtime the so-called second-tier candidates received, namely Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman. Both made the most of their chances.

Here are tonight’s grades, in order of best to worst:

THE TOP TIER

JON HUNTSMAN (1st Place, Grade: A)

I never thought Gov. Huntsman would land at the top of my debate scorecard, but he had a good night.

Instead of making lame jokes in this debate (or doing anything to evoke last Saturday’s dreadful Saturday Night Live appearance), Mr. Huntsman made the most of the significant airtime he was offered in this debate.

He was more focused tonight, looking both tougher and more serious than in earlier debates. He made his most genuine connection with the live audience to date, regularly eliciting cheers and applause for his answers. He also stood up well when Mitt Romney attacked one of his points, showing more backbone in a debate than he has thus far. 

As a former diplomat, Mr. Huntsman still has a propensity to utter too many carefully calibrated words before getting to his point – but he gained strength as the debate continued, and he emerges as tonight’s winner.

RON PAUL (2nd Place, Grade: A-)

Okay, Ron Paul fans. I’ve been hard on Dr. Paul through the debate season. No one as un-telegenic has won a general election since the dawn of television, and his delivery evokes The Simpsons’  Montgomery Burns more than a serious presidential candidate.

But Rep. Paul had a terrific night, and made the most of the extra airtime he was afforded in this debate. Instead of merely appearing strident, Dr. Paul made his points with a bit of humor, bewilderment, and bemusement. He held his own in a tough exchange against Newt Gingrich, standing his ground while remaining amiable.

His comments on Israel will likely make some headlines tomorrow, as he’s the only candidate not to offer almost unequivocal military support to the critical American ally. 

MICHELE BACHMANN (3rd Place, Grade: B+)

If someone had told me I’d be ranking the candidates in this order tonight, I would have told them to turn their sheet of paper upside down. But I call ‘em like I see ‘em, and Rep. Bachmann had a good night.

Ms. Bachmann has perfected the art of taking shots at her fellow candidates with a smile. She called Rick Perry out for being “naïve” on aid to Pakistan, and directly challenged Newt Gingrich on immigration. She may not have landed a knock-out blow to either, but she reasserted herself with a demonstration of the political skills that briefly allowed her to flirt with the lead. She also demonstrated an impressive knowledge of foreign policy.

Ms. Bachmann may not gain much ground as a result of this debate, but she likely encouraged her supporters with tonight’s performance.

MIDDLE OF THE PACK

NEWT GINGRICH (4th Place, tie, Grade: B)

Tonight introduced the newer, gentler, frontrunner version of Newt Gingrich. The former House Speaker didn’t bring the same antagonism toward the media or his questioners as he has in virtually every other debate tonight, meaning he disappeared into the background a bit tonight.

That’s not to say he didn’t have another solid debate performance – he did. He offered a terrific answer early on regarding Timothy McVeigh, for example, eliciting cheers from the crowd.

It will be interesting to see how his answer regarding illegal immigration plays with the GOP base. He said that if a person has been in the United States for 25 years and has deep roots into their communities, they should be able to stay in the country. That may sound obvious to most Americans, but the conservative base takes a hardline on immigration and may view his answer as support for a backdoor amnesty.

MITT ROMNEY (4th Place, tie Grade: B)

Early in the debate, Gov. Romney launched an aggressive attack on fellow candidate Jon Huntsman for his answer on withdrawing troops from Afghanistan. Considering Gov. Huntsman’s low poll ratings, Mr. Romney’s condescending attack came across as an over-reaction. He later went after Ron Paul over budget cuts.

Mr. Romney’s tone has become one of almost permanent “Why am I here” annoyance, and he’s at his least appealing when he presents himself that way. It makes him appear frustrated that he hasn’t been able to break through into a clear lead.

Still, Mr. Romney knows his facts and knows how to win an argument. For example, he got the better of Ron Paul in his answer about defense cuts. 

Tonight’s performance will likely leave the needle unchanged for Romney, who has struggled to break the 25 percent mark in Republican polls.

TRAILING THE FIELD

RICK SANTORUM (6th Place, Grade: C)

There’s little new to say about Rick Santorum. He’s passionate and knowledgeable, but also sour and strident. He hasn’t grown as a candidate or a debater, and he’ll be one of only a few candidates never to have had a shot at or near the lead. Tonight once again showed why.

Many people are also commenting on Sen. Santorum’s “gaffe,” in which he called Africa a country (it’s a continent). I have little doubt Mr. Santorum knows the difference, and don’t think it’s revelatory of any deeper lack of understanding. Slips of the tongue happen, and this one is no big deal.

RICK PERRY (7th Place, Grade: C-)

I could comment here on Gov. Perry’s halting answers, distractingly sweaty upper lip, or his bizarre opening statement about his wife (it was supposed to be about foreign policy).

The truth is, none of that really matters. Mr. Perry’s tone was better-calibrated tonight, but he didn’t make a dent in this debate. He may have stopped the bleeding from his “oops” moment two weeks ago, but he flirted with utter irrelevance in tonight’s debate, which will likely do little to calm his nervous donors.

HERMAN CAIN (8th Place, Grade: D-)

Remember that Happy Days episode when Fonzie jumped the shark? This debate was that episode for Herman Cain.

Foreign policy is undoubtedly Mr. Cain’s kryptonite (well, that, plus former female employees). A candidate can hide behind empty bluster for only so long before his policy ignorance is exposed; tonight was the night it was. There are many reasons to bomb Iran (or not), for example, but Mr. Cain seemed enamored with the idea that we couldn’t bomb it primarily because it is too mountainous.

Mr. Cain couldn’t even get the moderator’s name right, referring to Wolf Blitzer as “Blitz.” This was a bad night for Mr. Cain, who will not get another shot at the top.

Do you agree or disagree with my analysis? Please leave your opinion in the comment section below, but remember the blog’s comment policy – no ad hominem attacks or pejorative name-calling will be posted.

Related: November 9, 2011 Republican Debate Scorecard

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Thanks to Rick Perry, no one will be talking about Herman Cain’s sexual harassment allegations tomorrow.

Gov. Perry’s humiliating, 45-second-long gaffe will surely be the main headline tomorrow (the video of his painful brain freeze appears below). But how did the other seven candidates do?

Here are tonight’s grades, in order of best to worst:

THE TOP TIER

HERMAN CAIN (1st Place, Grade: A-)

With another strong performance, Mr. Cain continues to show why he has soared to the top of the pack. When asked about allegations of sexual harassment, he delivered a short, media-friendly sound bite:

“The American people deserve better than someone being in tried in the court of public opinion based on unfounded accusations.”

Mr. Cain also demonstrated why he was an effective marketer, not only continuing to brand “9-9-9,” but seemingly inventing the phrase “sneak a-taxes” – which I suspect we’ll be hearing again.

His answer regarding Italy’s debt crisis exposed gaps in his knowledge, which could hurt him as he moves closer to the nation’s first votes being cast in January.

Plus, I question his decision to label Nancy Pelosi, “Princess Nancy” during this debate, as it’s probably not the right time to give critics any ammunition to label him a misogynist. Despite the downsides, it was an overall impressive performance. 

MITT ROMNEY (2nd Place, Grade: B+)

Gov. Romney’s strategy seems to be to try to win the nomination by remaining steady while other candidates self-immolate, rather than to win by being loved by voters. That strategy may work for him.

Mr. Romney was steady again tonight, although he’s increasingly looking annoyed when answering questions. One humorous (if not telling) moment occurred when Mr. Romney tried to reverse his image as a flip-flopper:  

“I think people understand that I’m a man of steadiness and constancy. I don’t think you’re going to find someone who has more of those attributes than I do. I’ve been married to the same woman for 25 – excuse me, I’ll get in trouble – for 42 years.”

As someone on my Twitter feed recently said, Mr. Romney has a glass jaw, but his opponents have yet to find a way to break it. That must say something about his debating skills.

NEWT GINGRICH (3rd Place, tie, Grade: B)

Speaker Gingrich showed his wit time and time again tonight, most notably when moderator John Harwood tried to get him with a “gotcha” question:

John Harwood: “Your firm was paid $300,000 by Freddie Mac in 2006. What did you do for that money?”

Newt Gingrich: “I offered them advice on precisely what they didn’t do.”

Mr. Gingrich is moving up in the polls (perhaps because the other conservative choices – Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry have flamed out, while Herman Cain is busy fighting tough allegations). It’s understandable why voters are attracted to him – he’s witty, knowledgeable, and tough.

But I continue to question his lack of optimism and his discipline. Why waste several seconds fighting the moderators that he only has 30 seconds to answer a question? He agreed to the rules prior to the debate, and his reaction to the rules being enforced was a waste of valuable airtime. It’s okay to attack the media, but he should pick his moments more carefully.

Little has changed. In August 2010, I wrote on this blog:

“If Mr. Gingrich can find a way to remain stubbornly on message (and can begin to exude some optimism), he can become a viable contender. But until he demonstrates he can do so, he is not likely to win a general election, even against an unpopular president.”

MICHELE BACHMANN (3rd Place, tie, Grade: B)

Ms. Bachmann had one of her strongest performances since her first debate tonight. She began by knocking a question about tax rates out of the park, and made a compelling case that every American should pay at least something in federal taxes, even if it’s just $10.

Ms. Bachmann’s solid performance tonight will likely not prop up her flagging campaign, but it might help keep her supporters from moving to a different candidate…for now.

TRAILING THE FIELD

RON PAUL (5th Place, tied, Grade: C)

We know something about the type of person the American people elect. Since the beginning of the 24/7 media age in 1980, the more charismatic candidate has won every general election. Rep. Paul is not that candidate. 

Many of this blog’s readers are fans of Dr. Paul, and my analysis is not a referendum on Dr. Paul’s ideas. But style points matter to the electorate, and Dr. Paul too often looks more like a scolding nag than a presidential figure. He’s consistent and steady, but isn’t breaking through to a large-enough base to earn the nomination.

RICK SANTORUM (5th Place, tied, Grade: C)

You know that old saw that voters tend to vote for the candidate they’d most like to drink a beer with? It’s hard to see many people choosing Sen. Santorum as their drinking buddy.

Mr. Santorum looks sour. He spends way too much time talking about his 1990s legislative record instead of focusing like a laser on what he would do if elected. Mr. Santorum has run a campaign without any embarrassing headlines – but unfortunately for him, also one without any headlines at all. He failed to distinguish himself any further tonight, and will almost certainly remain in the “also-ran” category.

Despite that, I’m still giving him a “C” because he’s passionate and clearly believes in his positions. He deserves some credit for that authenticity.

JON HUNTSMAN (7th Place, Grade: D+)

If you ask the average American to list the people running for President, I’m betting Gov. Huntsman shows up as little more than an asterisk on the list. Despite national exposure in half a dozen debates, he’s barely made a dent.

He’s trying to run as an intellectual (tonight, he used words and phrases including, “the metastasis effect,” “yield curve,” and “efficacious.” I’m all for big words, but just ask Al Gore and John Kerry how well their intellectualism worked for them.

I’m convinced that Mr. Huntsman is no longer running for President, but rather to boost his chances of a high-profile job post-candidacy. He may be a smart and likeable fella, but it’s hard to see how he’s going to be the Republican nominee.

RICK PERRY (8th Place, Grade: F)

In politics, image is (almost) everything. When Gov. Perry said he wanted to eliminate three government agencies and tried to list them, he couldn’t come up with the third agency. Instead of gracefully moving on, he continued trying to think of the third agency – for almost 45 painful seconds.

With his bumbling answer, Mr. Perry reinforced the now almost irreversible perception that he is not ready for prime time. That indelible moment will linger, and will likely doom his campaign.

It’s too bad. Other than that answer, Mr. Perry finally got his tone right and was steadier in this debate than in any of the earlier ones. But it won’t matter. Here’s the moment everyone will be talking about tomorrow:

What should Mr. Perry have done? As any media trainer would tell you, he should have transitioned – or “bridged” – to safer ground. For example, he could have said,

“You know, I’m having a brain freeze on that third agency, but let me tell you why it’s so important that we make these types of cuts. We need to do that because…”

Instead, Mr. Perry chose to wallow in his mistake with a “deer in headlights” expression not seen in such a high-profile debate since Arizona Governor Jan Brewer committed a similar gaffe in her 2010 gubernatorial debate.

Do you agree or disagree with my analysis? Please leave your opinion in the comment section below, but remember the blog’s comment policy – no ad hominem attacks or pejorative name-calling will be posted.

Related: October 18, 2011 Republican Debate Scorecard

Related: October 11, 2011 Republican Debate Scorecard

Related: September 22, 2011 Republican Debate Scorecard

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The Western Republican Presidential Debate found seven GOP candidates in rare form, rhetorical guns a’blazin’ as they attacked one another without mercy. 

Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann attacked Herman Cain. Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum attacked Mitt Romney. Mitt Romney and Rick Perry looked like they might come to blows. And as he does so well, Ron Paul attacked legislators who vote for things.

Oh, and the crowd cheered for putting an electric fence on the border with Mexico. It’s an interesting election season, folks. 

Here are tonight’s grades, in order of best to worst:

Photo Credit: Getty Images

THE TOP TIER

HERMAN CAIN (1st Place, Grade: B+)

Mr. Cain’s “9-9-9” plan dominated the early portion of tonight’s debate, demonstrating that he is still having an impact on this race. Mr. Cain’s plan is vulnerable to attack, and I suspect he won’t be able to defend it successfully much longer. But he deflected his competitor’s attacks well tonight, and came away from the exchange (mostly) unscathed. On the whole, Mr. Cain continues to improve as a debater, knows how to deliver an applause line, and intuitively understands how to connect with conservative voters.

Mr. Cain had a couple of off-notes when he risked looking like an undisciplined flip flopper. He backed away from a comment he made earlier in the day about negotiating with terrorists, and again when he claimed he didn’t support TARP in 2008.

RICK SANTORUM (2nd Place, tie, Grade: B)

Sen. Santorum had a (mostly) good night, but lost a lot of points when he interrupted Mitt Romney for a solid 15 seconds, then said, “sorry, you’re out of time.” The audience booed him, and he looked like a bad sport.

That moment aside, he had one of his better performances. Mr. Santorum did a nice job of answering a question about his views on Latinos by praising their faith and commitment to family. He effectively attacked Gov. Perry regarding his previous support for TARP. He also scored some points against Mitt Romney on health care.

Since the beginning of the 24/7 media age in 1980, the more charismatic candidate has won every presidential election. Mr. Santorum conveys moral certitude, but lacks the sunny optimism that wins elections. Still, if he’s aiming directly for his narrow Evangelical base in Iowa, he had a good night.

RICK PERRY (3rd Place, Grade: B-)

Rick Perry came to play tonight. He was tough, steely, aggressive and nasty – and he demonstrated a (somewhat) better command of facts tonight.

At times, he overshot and verged on caricature – but this version of Rick Perry is much more likely to win the nomination than the one who showed up to the last three debates.

He passionately delivered an energy-centric jobs plan that would, he claimed, create 1.2 million jobs. He fought against the idea of building a fence along the entire border, instead making the case for an alternative solution.

Mr. Perry was effective when he attacked Mitt Romney for hiring an illegal immigrant – at least he was effective the first time he used the attack. When he tried to resurrect the attack minutes later, he stretched too far and earned boos from the crowd. When Mr. Romney accused Mr. Perry of attacking him because he’s had a tough few debates, Mr. Perry looked piiiiiisssed.

Still, awkward syntax and over-stretching aside, Mr. Perry asserted himself tonight as a candidate who plans to be in the race for a while. Pundits are already writing that he tried too hard and failed tonight – but his approach will likely appeal to many base voters, and I suspect his poll numbers will bounce a bit in the next few days. 

MIDDLE OF THE PACK

MITT ROMNEY (4th Place, tie, Grade: C+)

Mitt Romney was more aggressive tonight than he’s been thus far. The Nevada crowd seemed to love his aggressive tone, but his tone won’t play as well in people’s living rooms. The condescending tone he used against his competitors brought out some of his most unlikeable qualities.

When Gov. Perry interrupted him, for example, Gov. Romney placed his hand on Rick Perry’s shoulder during a particularly heated moment. I can’t remember a moment at a debate when two candidates looked so close to coming to blows. He later patronized Rick Perry, scolding: “You have a problem with allowing someone to finish speaking, and I suggest that if you want to become President Of The United States, you have to let both people speak.”

When Sen. Santorum interrupted him, Gov. Romney channeled Ross Perot, shouting “May I finish? May I finish?”

Although Mr. Romney was solid during the second half of the debate, his aggressive responses showed that he still views Mr. Perry as a threat – despite the Texas governor’s dramatically declining poll numbers. It’s a fine line between tough and grating, and Mr. Romney was on the wrong side of that line tonight.

RON PAUL (4th Place, tie, Grade: C+)

As happens often, Rep. Paul found himself alone a few times tonight. For example, he pointed out that President Reagan negotiated with terrorists.

He offered a solid reply regarding storing nuclear waste at Nevada’s Yucca Mountain as it related to states rights, and his opponents found rare agreement with his position.

This was generally a good debate for Dr. Paul, but his performance did little to change the dynamic of the race. He’s trailing badly in all national polls (he’s fared better in a few, mostly useless, straw polls), and tonight will not fundamentally re-set his place in the race.

MICHELE BACHMANN (4th Place, tie, Grade: C+)

Rep. Bachmann had a relatively good night – but like Dr. Paul, she did nothing to fundamentally re-set her place in this race. She had one particularly strong moment when she looked into the camera and appealed directly to women and mothers whose houses are threatened by foreclosure. She also demonstrated her knowledge of foreign affairs tonight.

None of that will matter. Her star has fallen, and she did nothing tonight to help herself earn a second act.

Update: A few readers rightly pointed out a Bachmann gaffe I missed: During one answer, she seemed to forget that Libya is in Africa.

TRAILING THE FIELD

NEWT GINGRICH (7th Place, Grade: C)

For most of tonight’s debate, Mr. Gingrich was a non-presence. He delivered a few winning applause lines, but he’s at his most effective when he shows his softer and more humorous side along with his more bellicose one. He failed to do so tonight.

As a media and presentation trainer, I appreciate strong language – so phrases such as “suicidally stupid” appeal to me. But his pedantic, finger-pointing, and angry responses won’t win him many new votes. Not one of his stronger performances.

Do you agree or disagree with my analysis? Please leave your opinion in the comment section below, but remember the blog’s comment policy – no ad hominem attacks or pejorative name-calling will be posted.

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Political reporters change storylines more often than Larry King changes wives.

For the past three debates, the media narrative was framed as an apparent two-man race between Mitt Romney and Rick Perry. But after Gov. Perry had a couple of lousy debates, the media narrative has shifted away from Rick Perry and onto businessman Herman Cain, who has suddenly soared to (or near) the top of several Republican polls. 

But unexpectedly, my headline for tonight’s debate has less to do with the candidates and more to do with the moderators.

The moderators, led by PBS Host Charlie Rose, insisted upon serious, policy-focused answers  – and the format seemed to bring out the best in the candidates. I hope other moderators are taking notes, as our nation would benefit from more debates like this one.

Here are tonight’s grades, in order of best to worst:

Photo Credit: AP

THE TOP TIER

MITT ROMNEY (1st Place, Grade: A)

Mitt Romney wears an almost permanently bemused expression that suggests he sees himself as above the fray. He is. Gov. Romney delivered another impressive performance tonight, successfully deflecting attacks and easily parrying with his opponents. He also displayed a sense of humor, joking with Charlie Rose, who accidentally called on the wrong person.

Mr. Romney is terrific at remaining on message. He steadfastly refuses to answer hypothetical questions that don’t advance his message, opting to transition to the points he wants to make instead.

Mr. Romney is far from the most inspiring candidate the GOP has ever seen. But there’s a reason he’s leading the polls, albeit it barely – what he doesn’t earn in love, he’s earning through hard work and competence.

HERMAN CAIN: (2nd Place, Grade: A-)

You have to give this to Herman Cain: He’s the only candidate whose economic plan (“9-9-9”) is becoming a household phrase. That’s good for him, in that it made him a primary focus during tonight’s debate – but it’s also problematic, as it will increasingly make him a target.

Mr. Cain had an advantage during tonight’s debate, which was focused almost exclusively on the economy. He has fared less well on foreign policy issues, and will be more vulnerable when questioned on those topics.

Mr. Cain had one off note tonight when he cited Alan Greenspan as his favorite Fed Chairman. That will likely receive press over the next few days, as Mr. Greenspan’s policies are regularly blamed for this economic crisis.

NEWT GINGRICH (3rd Place, Grade: B)

Former House Speaker Gingrich appeared tough and smart again tonight, looking wiser than most of his competitors. He would have received a higher grade if he didn’t look so angry during a few of his answers. Yes, the American people are angry – but they have consistently rewarded presidential candidates who deliver tough truths with sunny optimism.

One off note occurred when Mr. Gingrich said that Fmr. Sen. Chris Dodd and Rep. Barney Frank should go to prison for their legislation (which was approved by both Chambers of Congress). Mr. Gingrich’s message will never be heard if he continues to offer the press such irresistible sound bites.

MIDDLE OF THE PACK

RON PAUL (4th Place, Grade: B-)

Sure, Dr. Paul delivered the same answers he always does about the Fed, the gold standard, and government intervention. But the seated, roundtable seemed to soften his delivery a bit, making him look more like a senior statesman than like an old crank.

RICK SANTORUM (5th Place, tie, Grade: C+)

Former Senator Santorum is deeply passionate about his beliefs, and he threw some of the strongest punches during tonight’s debate. He convincingly argued that Herman Cain’s “9-9-9” plan couldn’t pass Congress, while his could. Still, there’s little optimistic about Mr. Santorum – and the less charismatic candidate has lost every general election since the beginning of the 24/7 media age in 1980.

MICHELE BACHMANN (5th Place, tie, Grade: C+)

Rep. Bachmann had a good performance tonight, but did little to catapult herself back to the top of the GOP field. Plus, I can’t help wondering if her regular talking point of raising 28 kids – 23 foster children and five biological children – makes her appear eccentric to some voters.

Ms Bachmann got a good line off when she said if you turn the “9-9-9” plan upside down, the devil is in the details. The problem, though, is that she’s talking about Mr. Cain’s plan; nobody is talking about hers.

RICK PERRY (7th Place, Grade: C)

Rick Perry looks like he was culled from central casting on a Hollywood lot, but sounds like he was culled from the George W. Bush school of public speaking.

He may have staunched the bleeding tonight with a “do no harm” debate – but he did little to convince voters that he would be able to effectively debate President Obama in a presidential debate. Nor did he manage to get off a single memorable line.

It’s a good thing for his campaign that he’s raised a lot of money. He’s not going to win the nomination by being a convincing debater, so he’ll need the cash to produce slick, scripted ads.

TRAILING THE FIELD

JON HUNTSMAN (8th Place, Grade: D+)

Jon Huntsman is the uncle at your family picnic who makes a bunch of cringe-worthy jokes that require you to offer polite forced laughter. Tonight, his shtick seemed more appropriate for a bad comic warming up the headliner at Yuk Yuks than for a candidate for president.

By my count, he started three of his answers with jokes – that Washington, DC is the “gas” capital of the nation, that the “9-9-9” plan sounds like the price of a pizza, and that he wasn’t going to make Mitt Romney’s religion an issue (he, too, is Mormon).  It’s a shame, because Gov. Huntsman is a thoughtful candidate. But his jokes distract from his more serious points, and he has missed almost every opportunity to break through. 

Wondering what measurements I used to help grade tonight’s debate? Here are the seven traits all eight winning general election candidates have had since the beginning of the 24/7 media age in 1980.

Do you agree or disagree with my analysis? Please leave your opinion in the comment section below, but remember the blog’s comment policy – no ad hominem attacks or pejorative name-calling will be posted.

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Rick Perry, the national frontrunner for the GOP nomination, had a lousy debate performance in the last debate. So the media’s main storyline going into tonight’s debate wondered whether Governor Perry could mount a comeback, or whether another weak performance would jeopardize his place at the top.

For political geeks, this debate had two other storylines. First, would former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman finally emerge as a credible alternative? And second, would the sudden re-appearance of former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson (who was banned from the past several debates due to low poll numbers) change anything?

Here are tonight’s grades, in order of best to worst:

THE TOP TIER

MITT ROMNEY (1st Place, Grade: A)

Gov. Romney’s growth as a candidate since 2008 is impressive. He appears strong, confident, and almost completely nonplussed by attacks from his opponents.

Great media spokespersons know how to answer questions with a clear, definitive answer before circling back to add additional context – Mr. Romney does that like a pro. Mr. Romney is also becoming more skilled at delivering a rhetorical punch, effectively knocking his main opponent, Rick Perry. He deftly waved off one attack from Rick Perry with a dismissive (and effective) “nice try.”

Mr. Romney answers the questions he wants to and avoids questions he doesn’t want to answer. For example, he evaded answering what his definition of “wealthy” is. That might work for now, but at some point, he’s going to have to answer those types of questions with greater detail.

NEWT GINGRICH (2nd Place, Grade: B+)

Once again, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich turned in a solid performance tonight. He appears overly-strident at times, and would benefit from using his humor more often to smooth out his rough edges. 

Mr. Gingrich is one of the best candidates at delivering a memorable sound bite, such as this one: “A leader [Ronald Reagan] came along. He said when your brother-in law is unemployed, it’s a recession. When you’re unemployed, it’s a depression. When Jimmy Carter is unemployed, it’s a recovery. Nothing will turn America around more than election night when Barack Obama loses decisively.”

MIDDLE OF THE PACK

HERMAN CAIN: (3rd Place, Grade: B)

Mr. Cain gave a steady performance tonight that demonstrated his continued growth as a candidate. He is clearly a sentimental favorite, a candidate whose obvious charisma has led to a high favorability ranking among Republicans. He’s amiable, his message is aligned with much of the public, and he radiates a sense of optimism.

Like Mr. Gingrich, he’s also gifted at delivering a witty sound bite, such as this one: “Ronald Reagan once said we are a shining city on a hill. We slid down the side of the hill. Americans want somebody who’s going to lead them back to the top of that hill.”

JON HUNTSMAN (4th Place, Grade: C+)

Gov. Huntsman had one of his steadiest performances tonight – he was much more disciplined and didn’t attempt any lame Kurt Cobain jokes tonight. His answers were serious, and he didn’t hesitate to defend his views — even those that were unpopular with the audience in the auditorium.

Mr. Huntsman doesn’t bring nearly enough joy to the debate. Americans tend to elect the happier warrior – Ronald Reagan was a happier warrior than Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale, Bill Clinton was a happier warrior than George H.W. Bush and Bob Dole, George W. Bush was a happier warrior than Al Gore and John Kerry, and Barack Obama was a happier warrior than John McCain. That trend doesn’t bode well for Mr. Huntsman.

RICK PERRY (5th Place, tie, Grade: C)

Gov. Perry’s debate performance was better tonight, but not because he performed particularly well – he just performed less badly.

Mr. Perry’s halting, hesitating delivery makes him look lost and unsure. He has an unseemly habit of refusing eye contact with the person he’s attacking or the person who’s attacking him – instead, he looks down or straight ahead, his face looking strained the entire time.

It wasn’t all bad for Mr. Perry. After one particularly effective jab about Mitt Romney editing out a line about “RomneyCare” in the soft cover version of his book, Perry joked that the back and forth between the two men was like a game of badminton. It was a well-timed quip that helped soften Mr. Perry, who more frequently uses brass knuckles.

He’s defiant when defending even unpopular policies among the Republican base, such as his support for a statewide mandate to administer the HPV vaccine. That defiance will likely read as strength to a lot of voters, including those who disagree with him on a given issue.

RICK SANTORUM (5th Place, tie, Grade: C)

Like some of his peers, Sen. Santorum appears not only joyless, but permanently annoyed. He landed a few effective punches against Gov. Perry on immigration and health care, but hasn’t done anything to elevate his candidacy out of the middle of the pack. On the plus side, he’s energetic and passionate, and clearly believes in his message. But at this point, he’s running for a cabinet post, an ambassadorship, or higher speaking fees.

TRAILING THE FIELD

MICHELE BACHMANN (7th Place, Grade: C-)

The only headline with Rep. Bachmann from this debate is that there is no headline. She has become almost irrelevant, the invisible candidate who has gotten weaker in almost every debate.

It’s barely worth pointing out, but Ms. Bachmann made yet another misstatement tonight in saying that President Obama is the least popular president in modern history. According to Gallup, George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, Jimmy Carter, and several others have all polled lower at some point in the presidencies.

GARY JOHNSON (8th Place, Grade: D+)

Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson wasn’t allowed in the past several debates due to his low poll numbers – and his lack of debate experience showed tonight. Throughout most of the debate, Mr. Johnson looked nervous and uncomfortable. He has a nervous tic of moving his left thumb repeatedly while he speaks, a distraction that reinforces his lack of ease.

Toward the end of the night, he demonstrated one singular moment of joy on the stage when he quipped: “My next door neighbors’ two dogs have created more shovel-ready jobs than this president.” But that moment didn’t make up for his overall lackluster performance.

Because this is a media training blog, it’s worth pointing out that he wore a tie with thin stripes, which led to a distracting shimmer effect on television. In order to avoid the shimmer effect, ties should be solid or feature broad stripes.  

RON PAUL (9th Place, Grade: D)

Since 1980, there have been eight presidential elections. In all eight of them, the more charismatic candidate won (unless you considered Bob Dole more charismatic than Bill Clinton).

Inevitably, I’m going to hear from fans of Dr. Paul who criticize me for a superficial analysis of his delivery instead of focusing on his content. But voters don’t cast their votes based solely on their content; personal qualities loom large in the voting booth. Dr. Paul may be a fan favorite, but he comes across as a crank. He’s joyless – and that’s a problem for him, since few joyless candidates have won the presidency since the invention of television.

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Do you agree or disagree with my analysis? Please leave your opinion in the comment section below, but remember the blog’s comment policy – no ad hominem attacks or pejorative name-calling will be posted.

Related: September 12, 2011 Republican Debate Scorecard

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Related: May 5, 2011 Republican Debate Scorecard