This is the 13th article in a weekly series looking at possible 2012 presidential contenders. Click here to learn more about the series.
You’re probably wondering who Gary Johnson is and why he’s being included in our Election 2012 preview series.
Surprisingly, the former New Mexico governor is getting a fair amount of presidential buzz. Salon.com called him, “the most interesting Republican you’ve never heard of,” The New Republic declared him the next Ron Paul, and CNN.com titled an op-ed, “Forget Palin, here’s Gary Johnson.”
It’s easy to see why Mr. Johnson is getting some attention. He’s earnest but charismatic, an ideologue but not a flamethrower. And he clearly has some of the seven traits all eight winning presidential candidates have had since the beginning of the 24/7 media age in 1980.
Mr. Johnson is comfortable in his own skin, uses uncomplicated language, and is well-aligned with voters on many fiscal and social issues.
When the interviewers asked him to give one-sentence answers to various topics, he did a good job of front-loading his answers with his main message at least twice. On the economy, he started his answer with, “Stop the spending.” On drugs, “I think we should legalize marijuana.”
I’ll review his communications flaws and give him a grade below.
Gov. Johnson’s messaging isn’t nearly tight enough. He would benefit from heeding the old advice, “Grab them by the throat and don’t let go.” Since the average sound bite on today’s evening news is a mere 7.3 seconds, Mr. Johnson will need to do a better job of speaking the media’s language to ensure he gets the free media coverage underdog candidates rely upon.
Although Gov. Johnson’s demeanor is pleasant, he didn’t articulate an optimistic vision for the nation. Independent voters reward candidates who do, so Mr. Johnson should work on delivering an uplifting, positive message.
As a pro-choice libertarian who supports gay rights and legalized marijuana, Mr. Johnson is unlikely to get the Republican nomination. In the unlikely circumstance he does, the below grade reflects his chances in a general election against President Obama in 2012.
GRADE: C
To see the other candidates I’ve reviewed so far, click on their names: John Thune, Mitt Romney, Haley Barbour, Newt Gingrich, Jeb Bush, Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels, Bobby Jindal, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, Chris Christie, Jim DeMint, Donald Trump, Mike Pence, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Barack Obama
December 20th, 2010 at 12:10 am
Hmmm … if this ranking were his possibility of winning the nomination in Republican primaries, it might make sense. However, assuming Gary Johnson were to carry the Republican vote, he would have no problem commanding the independent and disillusioned Democrat vote. With the caveat you’ve provided, Gary Johnson really ought be graded as the only A+.
December 20th, 2010 at 12:28 pm
Kevin – thank you for your comment. I agree that Gov. Johnson would have an easier time in the general election than in the Republican primaries. But the specific communications concerns I enumerated in Gov. Johnson’s critique apply to his overall communications style and would apply to a general election matchup against President Obama. That said, he has a lot of compelling communications traits, and the question is whether he can improve his overall communications efforts over the next two years.
December 24th, 2010 at 12:50 am
Good advice. He especially needs to “Grab them by the throat” in the primary, since he’s competing for tea party voters used to being fed Palin’s emotional sugar candy and Ron Paul’s “take no prisoners” approach to the issues.
I also agree that he needs a positive message. A libertarian take on the “change” theme would be very appropriate. (From a libertarian perspective, Obama’s presidency has been like a third term for George W. Bush on the fundamental issues.) But he needs to both make the case for change and also have a positive vision for the kind of country that change would produce.
Gary is a real long shot and he knows it. But he learned from Ron Paul’s campaign that there is an enthusiastic (if small) base for his unorthodox brand of Republicanism. He’s betting on the chance that he may be able to expand the appeal for these ideas to a more mainstream audience. His practical, commonsense approach to the issues is good. But to get that mainstream voter, he also needs rhetoric that can inspire.
And finally, I agree that the GOP nomination may actually be a harder race than the general election. But since the Democrats are unlikely to have a real primary, anyone looking for something different has to vote in the GOP primary… it’s easy to imagine Gary Johnson getting a lot of support from these folks.