This is the sixth in a weekly series looking at possible 2012 presidential contenders. Click here to learn more about the series.
Tim Pawlenty, or “T-Paw” as his supporters have dubbed him, has been the governor of Minnesota since 2002. He is not seeking re-election this year, freeing him up for a potential run at the GOP nomination.
Mr. Pawlenty has a geographic advantage over his competitors since his home state of Minnesota borders Iowa, traditionally the first state to hold its primary. And Pawlenty, an Evangelical Christian, is well-aligned with the conservative voters in that state.
But does he have the seven traits that all eight winning presidential candidates have had since the beginning of the 24/7 media age in 1980?
Yes and no. Mr. Pawlenty is amiable. He comes across as mild-mannered, comfortable in his skin, and credible on policy issues.
He seems well-aligned to Republican concerns, agreeing that Congress should change – if not totally repeal – the health care reform bill. He uses everyday language, as he does in the clip below regarding a recent scandal at the Republican National Committee:
“Well, that’s a terrible incident, Matt, it’s just a stupid thing, there’s people involved with really bad judgment, they didn’t have the controls in place to catch it and to flag it, so he [Michael Steele] has to take responsibility for it, they’ve done that, they’ve fired the employee. So I hope that they’ve learned from this, it’s something that should not have happened.”
I’ll review Mr. Pawlenty’s flaws as a communicator and give him his grade below.
In this interview, Mr. Pawlenty failed to deliver his message as powerfully as possible. For example, this is what he said in his first answer, responding to a question about Republican chances of repealing the health care bill:
“Well, the chances would be if Republicans took control of the Congress come the fall. They could take actions if not to repeal it outright, at least change and alter the course of it., and if need be, not fund it. So there’s an effective way to change or alter or effectively repeal the legislation.”
That answer may serve as a sound analysis, but it’s more the sound bite of a neutral pundit than an actively engaged politician. At the very least, he should have finished his answer by articulating his reasons why such a repeal is important to the average voter.
Independent voters reward optimistic candidates (think Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama), but Mr. Pawlenty failed to do anything here to demonstrate he belongs in their company.
Finally, there’s Mr. Pawlenty’s charisma-deficit. If there’s one word to describe his performance in the above video, it’s boring.
In each of the past eight presidential elections, the more charismatic candidate has won the general election. Assuming President Obama runs again in 2012, Mr. Pawlenty would have to become the first candidate in decades to beat a more charismatic opponent.
There’s a long way to go between now and November 2012. But if Mr. Pawlenty doesn’t improve on these points, he’s likely to suffer the same fate as fellow bland Midwesterners Dick Gephardt, Tommy Thompson, Walter Mondale, and Bob Dole.
GRADE: C
To see the other candidates I’ve reviewed so far, click on their names: John Thune, Mitt Romney, Haley Barbour, Newt Gingrich, Jeb Bush, Mitch Daniels, Bobby Jindal, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, Gary Johnson, Jim DeMint, Donald Trump, Mike Pence, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Barack Obama
