This is the fifth in a weekly series looking at possible 2012 presidential contenders. Click here to learn more about the series.
Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, son and brother of U.S. Presidents, is getting considerable buzz in political circles as a possible 2012 contender.
Mr. Bush isn’t a doctrinaire Republican (he opposes Arizona’s immigration law, for example), which could make getting the nomination tough. But as a “big tent” Republican popular with Cuban, non-Cuban Hispanic and Jewish voters, he could pose a real threat to President Obama in a general election.
He is a refreshingly candid communicator. In the clip below, Mr. Bush speaks passionately about the need for immigration reform, articulating his views in the context of conservative principles. Regarding Republican opposition to immigration reform, Mr. Bush says:
“To totally disown a group that is the only group that is growing in our country and is as American in their pursuit of the traditional dreams that people pursue here, as any other group, I think we do at our peril. It’s bad. It’s wrong. It’s wrong and it’s stupid. And the combination of being incorrect and stupid is just very dangerous in politics.”
According to the seven traits all winning presidential candidates have had since the dawn of the 24/7 media age in 1980, Mr. Bush would fare well in a general election. As the excerpt above and clip below illustrate, he has a clear message, uses everyday language, appears comfortable in his skin, and wraps his views around an optimistic vision of our nation’s future.
I’ll review Mr. Bush’s flaws as a communicator and give him his grade after the clip:
Governor Bush’s charisma is real, but understated. His obvious distaste for the interviewer’s questions makes him look more like a professorial scold than a winning presidential candidate.
Mr. Bush is not well-aligned to constituent concerns on the immigration issue, as public opinion polls find Arizona’s immigration law is broadly popular. Primary opponents would demagogue his moderate stance, likely blocking his nomination.
And then there’s his last name. Although Jeb Bush comes across as a more thoughtful and articulate man than his brother, certain facial expressions are eerily reminiscent of George W. Bush, making it hard for voters to forget his lineage.
Still, Jeb Bush is a serious man who would likely fare well in a general election.
GRADE: B-
To see the other candidates I’ve reviewed so far, click on their names: John Thune, Mitt Romney, Haley Barbour, Newt Gingrich, Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels, Bobby Jindal, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, Gary Johnson, Jim DeMint, Donald Trump, Mike Pence, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Barack Obama
